What Is Inflation and Deflation and a Speculation Concerning the Bitcoin Future

Recently I started buying bitcoins and I’ve heard a great deal of discusses inflation and deflation however, not lots of people actually know and think about what inflation and deflation are. But let’s start with inflation.

We always needed a way to trade value and the most practical way to take action would be to link it with money. In past times it worked quite well as the money that has been issued was associated with gold. So every central bank had to have enough gold to cover back all of the money it issued. However, before century this changed and gold isn’t what is giving value to money but promises. As comparatif plateforme trading can guess it’s very an easy task to abuse to such power and certainly the major central banks are not renouncing to do so. That is why they are printing money, so in other words they’re “creating wealth” out of thin air without really having it. This technique not only exposes us to risks of economic collapse nonetheless it results also with the de-valuation of money. Therefore, because money is worth less, whoever is selling something must raise the price of goods to reflect their real value, this is called inflation. But what’s behind the money printing? Why are central banks doing so? Well the answer they might give you is that by de-valuing their currency they are helping the exports.

In fairness, in our global economy this is true. However, that is not the only reason. By issuing fresh money we can afford to cover back the debts we’d, quite simply we make new debts to pay the old ones. But that’s not only it, by de-valuing our currencies we are de-facto de-valuing our debts. That is why our countries love inflation. In inflationary environments it’s better to grow because debts are cheap. But what are the consequences of all this? It’s hard to store wealth. If you keep the money (you worked hard to get) in your bank account you are actually losing wealth because your cash is de-valuing pretty quickly.

Because each central bank has an inflation target at around 2% we can well say that keeping money costs most of us at least 2% per year. This discourages savers and spur consumes. This is one way our economies are working, based on inflation and debts.

What about deflation? Well this is exactly the opposite of inflation in fact it is the biggest nightmare for the central banks, let’s see why. Basically, we’ve deflation when overall the costs of goods fall. This would be caused by a rise of value of money. To begin with, it would hurt spending as consumers will undoubtedly be incentivised to save money because their value will increase overtime. Alternatively merchants will be under constant pressure. They will need to sell their goods quick otherwise they will lose money as the price they will charge for his or her services will drop over time. But if there is something we learned in these years is that central banks and governments do not care much about consumers or merchants, what they care probably the most is DEBT!!. In a deflationary environment debt can be a real burden since it will only get bigger over time. Because our economies derive from debt you can imagine exactly what will be the consequences of deflation.

So in summary, inflation is growth friendly but is founded on debt. Therefore the future generations will pay our debts. Deflation however makes growth harder nonetheless it means that future generations won’t have much debt to pay (in such context it will be possible to cover slow growth).

OK so how all this fits with bitcoins?

Well, bitcoins are made to be an alternative for the money also to be both a store of value and a mean for trading goods. They’re limited in number and we’ll never have a lot more than 21 million bitcoins around. Therefore they’re designed to be deflationary. We now have all seen what the results of deflation are. However, in a bitcoin-based future it would still be possible for businesses to thrive. The ideal solution will be to switch from the debt-based economy to a share-based economy. In fact, because contracting debts in bitcoins will be very costly business can still have the capital they want by issuing shares of their company. This could be an interesting alternative as it will offer you many investment opportunities and the wealth generated will undoubtedly be distributed more evenly among people. However, just for clarity, I have to say that portion of the costs of borrowing capital will be reduced under bitcoins as the fees would be extremely low and there will not be intermediaries between transactions (banks rip people off, both borrowers and lenders). This would buffer some of the negative sides of deflation. Nevertheless, bitcoins will face many problems unfortunately, as governments still need fiat money to pay back the huge debts that people inherited from days gone by generations.